Stagnation of computer creativity and lessons from the automotive industry.

Thesis: Tech is following the path of the auto industry. Perhaps this is a standard phenomena.

In the early days of the automobile, there were hundreds of carmakers. New ideas were coming out all the time, with innovations in everything from engine technology to tailfins. But gradually the little guys either got swallowed up or closed up. Today it’s unheard of to start a car company*.

In the early days of the web, it was the same. Every combination of letters plus a “.com” was a potential winner; social bookmarks, online bill paying, search engines, music…anything. But in the last decade, it’s clear that there are only a few winners left. The best case scenario for a small startup is to be acquired by one of the FAANG giants: Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google.

As someone who was their in the early days, I miss the innovation and the wild west creativity. Very good ideas are left un-created, as their is no point in developing something that wouldn’t interest the big players. I feel lucky that I was young and interested in computers at just the right time to ride this massive wave.

What is the next big frontier? Perhaps biotechnology? Or will it necessarily be a sub-field of computers, such as AI or robotics? Or are we past the age of big, generation-defining society-changing technologies?

*Unless you’re a web billionaire and there is a technical innovation like lithium ion batteries.

Photo by Alex Iby on Unsplash